Tech & Science
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
Tech & Science11.5%
flat12562d
manifold
ResearchIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Tech & Science29.0%
flat510d
manifold
ResearchWill Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
Tech & Science2.5%
▼ -0.3 pts21d
manifold
ResearchAnthropic flips Apple before 2030?
Tech & Science45.0%
flat1604d
manifold
ResearchIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Tech & Science75.2%
flat510d
manifold
ResearchTesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
Tech & Science8.3%
flat143d
manifold
ResearchIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Tech & Science88.9%
flat510d
manifold
ResearchIn 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Tech & Science89.0%
flat510d
manifold
ResearchWill AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Tech & Science53.6%
flat1240d
manifold
ResearchWill AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
Tech & Science12.5%
flat27172d
manifold
ResearchBy the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Tech & Science9.7%
flat175d
manifold
ResearchAI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
Tech & Science38.7%
flat3066d
manifold
ResearchWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Tech & Science—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?
Tech & Science—
flat—
polymarket
ResearchWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Tech & Science—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028
Tech & Science—
flat508d
manifold
ResearchWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Tech & Science—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Tech & Science—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Tech & Science—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Tech & Science—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Tech & Science—
flat142d
polymarket
ResearchWill AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Tech & Science—
flat1240d
manifold
ResearchWill SpaceX (SPCX) beat quarterly earnings?
Tech & Science—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
Tech & Science—
flat21d
polymarket
ResearchWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
Tech & Science—
flat20d
polymarket
ResearchWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Tech & Science—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research| Market | Fair | 24h | Venues | Cross-spread | Top gap | Confidence | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060? Tech & ScienceOpen → | 11.5% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 12562d |
29.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 510d | |
2.5% | ▼ -0.3 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen → | 45.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1604d |
75.2% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 510d | |
8.3% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 143d | |
88.9% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 510d | |
89.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 510d | |
53.6% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1240d | |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 Tech & ScienceOpen → | 12.5% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 27172d |
9.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 175d | |
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035 Tech & ScienceOpen → | 38.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 3066d |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen → | — | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | — |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
— | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 508d | |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 142d | |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen → | — | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1240d |
Will SpaceX (SPCX) beat quarterly earnings? Tech & ScienceOpen → | — | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 20d | |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed |