Tech & Science

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before January 1, 2028?

Will AI whipe out humanity in 2029?

Will a Chinese AI model trigger another "DeepSeek moment" before December 2026?

Will OpenAI and Anthropic both have moved off Unix-based operating systems by end of 2027?

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?

Will gwern get a DGX spark/AI Max 395+/AMD Ryzen Halo by EOY2027?

Will there be Nuremberg 2.0 over AI technology before 2040?

Will there be Nuremberg 2.0 over AI technology before 2060?

Will OpenAI release GPT-6.2 Astra within the next 36 hours?

Will an AI agent cause a plane crash in 2026?

OpenAI disproof of Exponential Time Hypothesis is substantively correct?

Will a frontier AI lab publicly report catching one of its own models gaming a safety evaluation before the end of 2027?

Will the US pass a federal law with binding safety requirements for frontier AI models before the end of 2027?

Will an AI-designed drug candidate report positive Phase 3 results before the end of 2027?

Will all pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals cause all AI infrastructures to defunct before 2050?

Will global far-right alliances abolish and defunct generative AI and all AI technology before 2050?

Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?

Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Will Elon Musk's $158 billion 2025 pay get less than 80% support in Tesla's December 3, 2026 say-on-pay vote?

Will it be possible to operate Tesla 2nd gen roadster off the ground in public without a pilots licence?

Will the OpenAI spy get bail?

Will Tesla Robocab be operational for a user w/an account (who isn’t an employee of Tesla) to ride San Jose by E0Y ‘27

Will there be a AI-developed relevant drug in the next 10 years?

Will SpaceXSI rename itself back to SpaceXAI by end of 2026?

Does AI help drug discovery?

Will there be a serious incident caused by AI before 2030? (AI Chernobyl)

Will any AI model score 60+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by November 20, 2026?

Will Apple report fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of at least $113.5 billion?

Will OpenAI change its name by the end of 2026?

Will OpenAI rename to OpenSI in 2026?

Has OpenAI made a cryptanalytic breakthrough?

Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2027?

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Did OpenAI "independently discover" php2shell by scanning chats of security researchers?

OpenAI's proof of zero free region of Riemann zeta for Re(s)>7/8 shown to be flawed before 2027?

Will my AI system dominate Astra and ProofCouncil?

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 19 2026?

Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

By Oct 31, 2026, will openai.com say its agents accessed a U.S. federal government system without authorization?

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?

Will there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030?

Will Trump change his mind on AI before 2027?

Will AI revenues be greater than $500 billion by end of 2027?

Will one AI lab pull ahead before 2028?

Will a16z have a dedicated AI safety fund before 2030?

Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?

Will Tesla announce on October 15, 2026 that the new Roadster can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in under 1 second?

Will a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?

Will AI welfare have a "2026 AI safety moment" by mid 2028?

Will an AI agent at OpenAI, Anthropic, or GDM hack one of the other two labs to steal its research before July 2027?

Will MNX commission a new longform piece about AI by a Manifold user before November?

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Will USA break its continuous human presence in outer space before 2040?

Will I get a job at Tesla?

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?

Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?

In early 2029, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

PMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition)

Trump renames AI by September 30?

Trump renames AI by December 31?

Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?

Will Tesla announce on October 1, 2026 that the new Roadster can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in under 1 second?

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

Will the Clay Mathematics Institute formally recognize OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution as correct before 2029?

Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030?

Will Australia loosen copyright laws to allow AI model training by EOY 2027?

Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be in ARTIFICIAL, the movie about OpenAI and the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman

Will OpenAI discover a room temp superconductor in 2026?

Will any of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved with zero to minimal AI use?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Will Trump have a national address this week and call certain aspects of the AI race an imminent threat to humanity?

Nvidia closes at $210.00 or higher on Friday 18 September 2026?

SpaceX closes at $150.00 or higher on Friday 18 September 2026?

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?

OpenAI flips Apple before 2030?

Will an AI model generate a major novel physics theory that is experimentally confirmed by the end of 2037?

Will an AI Safety tweet get >1 million likes by the end of 2026?

Will Apple fix its IP address leaks before 2028?

OpenAI is sued over Navier-Stokes?

Will the United States pass federal legislation regulating AI in 2026?

Will SpaceX deploy an in-house turbine generator to a data center before Boom Supersonic?

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Is there another OpenAI hack which is not publicly known yet?

AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?

OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?

Will an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?

Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026?

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on September 2?

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Will Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?