Markets
What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.
Live markets
11,247
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?
▲ +24.7 pts
Highest confidence
US recession by end of 2026?
High · 75
Widest disagreement
US recession by end of 2026?
Most covered
US recession by end of 2026?
2 venues
Trending now
The most active markets
Fastest rising
Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability
Fastest falling
Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability
Highest confidence
Best-supported consensus right now
Closing soon
Resolving in the near term
Largest probability gaps
Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”
All markets
11,247 markets · page 1 of 8FeaturedHighSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingleSingle
US recession by end of 2026?
Economics & Fed8.9%
flat127d
polymarketmanifold
ResearchWill Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?
Economics & Fed33.5%
flat67d
polymarket
ResearchWill the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
Economics & Fed37.0%
flat6d
polymarket
ResearchWill Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
Economics & Fed18.6%
flat115d
polymarket
ResearchWill Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?
Economics & Fed69.0%
flat5d
polymarket
ResearchNo change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
Economics & Fed71.0%
flat41d
polymarket
ResearchWill the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Economics & Fed41.0%
flat1213d
manifold
ResearchBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Economics & Fed33.2%
▼ -0.5 pts463d
manifold
ResearchWill Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?
Economics & Fed33.0%
flat107d
polymarket
ResearchIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Tech & Science94.0%
▲ +1.5 pts463d
manifold
ResearchWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
Economics & Fed67.5%
flat34d
polymarket
ResearchWill US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
Economics & Fed72.5%
flat34d
polymarket
ResearchWill monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?
Economics & Fed35.0%
▼ -0.5 pts19d
polymarket
ResearchIn 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Tech & Science88.7%
flat463d
manifold
ResearchWill AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Tech & Science37.1%
flat97d
manifold
ResearchWill Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]
Crypto38.8%
flat97d
manifold
ResearchWill Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?
Tech & Science41.9%
flat97d
manifold
ResearchWill Polymarket IPO before 2028?
Economics & Fed43.0%
flat462d
manifold
ResearchLLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Tech & Science60.0%
flat462d
manifold
ResearchWill a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?
Politics44.5%
flat—
manifold
ResearchWill LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?
Politics45.0%
flat461d
manifold
ResearchOpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Tech & Science31.3%
flat1374d
manifold
ResearchWill Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?
Politics52.9%
flat979d
manifold
ResearchWill an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?
Tech & Science50.5%
flat—
manifold
ResearchWill a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
Tech & Science71.0%
▲ +0.8 pts462d
manifold
Research| Market | Fair | 24h | Venues | Cross-spread | Top gap | Confidence | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8.9% | flat | polymarketmanifold | Research | Research | High | 127d | |
33.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 67d | |
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? Economics & FedOpen → | 37.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 6d |
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%? Economics & FedOpen → | 18.6% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 115d |
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August? Economics & FedOpen → | 69.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 5d |
71.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 41d | |
41.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1213d | |
33.2% | ▼ -0.5 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 463d | |
33.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 107d | |
94.0% | ▲ +1.5 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 463d | |
67.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 34d | |
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? Economics & FedOpen → | 72.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 34d |
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? Economics & FedOpen → | 35.0% | ▼ -0.5 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 19d |
88.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 463d | |
37.1% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 97d | |
38.8% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 97d | |
41.9% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 97d | |
Will Polymarket IPO before 2028? Economics & FedOpen → | 43.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 462d |
60.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 462d | |
44.5% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — | |
45.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 461d | |
31.3% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1374d | |
52.9% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 979d | |
50.5% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — | |
71.0% | ▲ +0.8 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 462d |
Continue exploring
Recently published research
Economics & Fed· 4m ago
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
71.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 4m ago
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
18.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 4m ago
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
37.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →