Cross-Market Discrepancies
Where equivalent or related contracts disagree across venues — the Probability Gap in percentage points against the SkipSeek Fair Probability. A discrepancy is not a guaranteed profit.
Largest cross-market disagreement
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
0.4%
Fair Probability
Single source
GapResearch
open· 2 venues· closes 6d
polymarketmanifold
View research →Venue comparison
See each venue’s price side by side Research
Live markets
11,104
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
● 0.0 pts
Widest disagreement
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Most covered
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
2 venues
Top disagreements
Ranked by Probability GapWorld Events6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
2 venues
Probability Gap
0.4%
Fair
polymarketmanifold
Politics—
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
2 venues
Probability Gap
30.5%
Fair
manifoldpolymarket
Politics774d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 venues
Probability Gap
0.1%
Fair
manifoldpolymarket
Sportsclosed
Spread: Norway (-1.5)
2 venues
—Probability Gap
0.1%
Fair
polymarketskipodds
All discrepancies
Full tableStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
World Events0.4%
flat6d
polymarketmanifold
ResearchWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Politics30.5%
flat—
manifoldpolymarket
ResearchWill LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics0.1%
flat774d
manifoldpolymarket
ResearchSpread: Norway (-1.5)
Sports0.1%
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research