Movers
Biggest 24-hour moves in the SkipSeek Fair Probability, in percentage points.
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
Economics & Fed7.5%
▼ -23.0 pts42d
polymarket
ResearchWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Economics & Fed90.0%
▲ +4.9 pts97d
polymarket
ResearchBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Economics & Fed33.7%
▲ +2.7 pts464d
manifold
ResearchStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
World Events22.5%
▲ +2.0 pts98d
polymarket
ResearchIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Tech & Science92.5%
▼ -1.5 pts464d
manifold
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
World Events0.1%
▼ -1.3 pts18h
polymarket
ResearchWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
World Events14.5%
▲ +1.0 pts98d
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
World Events86.5%
▼ -1.0 pts6d
polymarket
ResearchWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
Economics & Fed26.5%
▼ -1.0 pts76d
polymarket
ResearchClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
World Events7.1%
▲ +0.9 pts98d
polymarket
Research🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027
Politics41.9%
▲ +0.8 pts9d
manifold
ResearchSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
World Events86.5%
▲ +0.8 pts1194d
manifold
ResearchWill the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
Politics58.2%
▼ -0.5 pts40d
manifold
ResearchRepublicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
World Events5.7%
▼ -0.5 pts41d
manifold
ResearchIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Tech & Science36.6%
▼ -0.4 pts464d
manifold
ResearchUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
World Events61.6%
▼ -0.3 pts98d
polymarket
ResearchUS recession in 2026?
Economics & Fed7.2%
▲ +0.2 pts98d
manifold
ResearchKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
World Events0.5%
▲ +0.2 pts6d
polymarket
ResearchWill Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?
Tech & Science41.9%
▲ +0.1 pts98d
manifold
ResearchWill a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
Weather11.8%
▲ +0.1 pts1194d
manifold
ResearchDonut Battery is essentially Lithium free?
Commodities15.3%
▼ -0.1 pts98d
manifold
Research2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Politics7.5%
flat39d
polymarket
ResearchWill Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics0.1%
flat775d
polymarket
ResearchWill Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics0.1%
flat10d
polymarket
ResearchWill LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics0.1%
flat775d
polymarket
ResearchWill LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics0.1%
flat774d
manifoldpolymarket
ResearchIn 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Tech & Science88.7%
flat464d
manifold
ResearchWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?
Economics & Fed0.3%
flat35d
polymarket
ResearchWill AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Tech & Science37.1%
flat98d
manifold
ResearchWill Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]
Crypto38.8%
flat98d
manifold
ResearchWill Polymarket IPO before 2028?
Economics & Fed43.0%
flat463d
manifold
ResearchLLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Tech & Science60.0%
flat463d
manifold
ResearchOpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Tech & Science31.3%
flat1375d
manifold
ResearchWill an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?
Tech & Science50.5%
flat—
manifold
ResearchWill a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
Tech & Science70.2%
flat463d
manifold
ResearchInternational treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Tech & Science33.0%
flat1194d
manifold
ResearchWill a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
Politics38.4%
flat948d
manifold
ResearchWill JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics48.0%
flat646d
manifold
ResearchTesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
Tech & Science4.5%
flat98d
manifold
ResearchWill there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?
Politics35.8%
flat101d
manifold
ResearchWould an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
Tech & Science47.8%
flat1560d
manifold
ResearchWill there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
Tech & Science38.1%
flat—
manifold
ResearchWill Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?
Economics & Fed63.7%
flat1559d
manifold
ResearchWill AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Tech & Science53.0%
flat1194d
manifold
ResearchWorld gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)
Economics & Fed64.1%
flat—
manifold
ResearchWill Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?
Tech & Science36.6%
flat—
manifold
ResearchWill over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
Politics27.4%
flat1195d
manifold
ResearchWill Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
Politics85.6%
flat980d
manifold
ResearchBy the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Tech & Science7.7%
flat129d
manifold
ResearchGeneration Starship By 2150
World Events44.3%
flat1406d
manifold
ResearchQ-Day before 2030?
World Events17.7%
flat1194d
manifold
ResearchWill Trump finish his second term?
World Events85.1%
flat850d
manifold
ResearchWill AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Politics67.5%
flat—
manifold
ResearchU.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?
World Events7.9%
flat463d
manifold
ResearchCATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?
Commodities85.2%
flat157d
manifold
ResearchPutin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
Politics0.1%
flat6d
polymarket
ResearchWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Economics & Fed31.5%
flat125d
polymarket
Research| Market | Fair | 24h | Venues | Cross-spread | Top gap | Confidence | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7.5% | ▼ -23.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 42d | |
90.0% | ▲ +4.9 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 97d | |
33.7% | ▲ +2.7 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 464d | |
22.5% | ▲ +2.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 98d | |
92.5% | ▼ -1.5 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 464d | |
0.1% | ▼ -1.3 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 18h | |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? World EventsOpen → | 14.5% | ▲ +1.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 98d |
86.5% | ▼ -1.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 6d | |
26.5% | ▼ -1.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 76d | |
7.1% | ▲ +0.9 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 98d | |
41.9% | ▲ +0.8 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 9d | |
86.5% | ▲ +0.8 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1194d | |
58.2% | ▼ -0.5 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 40d | |
5.7% | ▼ -0.5 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 41d | |
36.6% | ▼ -0.4 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 464d | |
61.6% | ▼ -0.3 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 98d | |
US recession in 2026? Economics & FedOpen → | 7.2% | ▲ +0.2 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 98d |
0.5% | ▲ +0.2 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 6d | |
41.9% | ▲ +0.1 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 98d | |
11.8% | ▲ +0.1 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1194d | |
15.3% | ▼ -0.1 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 98d | |
7.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 39d | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 775d | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 10d | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 775d | |
0.1% | flat | manifoldpolymarket | Research | Research | Single | 774d | |
88.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 464d | |
0.3% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 35d | |
37.1% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 98d | |
38.8% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 98d | |
Will Polymarket IPO before 2028? Economics & FedOpen → | 43.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 463d |
60.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 463d | |
31.3% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1375d | |
50.5% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — | |
70.2% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 463d | |
33.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1194d | |
38.4% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 948d | |
48.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 646d | |
4.5% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 98d | |
35.8% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 101d | |
47.8% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1560d | |
38.1% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — | |
63.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1559d | |
53.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1194d | |
64.1% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — | |
36.6% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — | |
27.4% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1195d | |
85.6% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 980d | |
7.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 129d | |
Generation Starship By 2150 World EventsOpen → | 44.3% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1406d |
Q-Day before 2030? World EventsOpen → | 17.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1194d |
Will Trump finish his second term? World EventsOpen → | 85.1% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 850d |
67.5% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — | |
7.9% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 463d | |
85.2% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 157d | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 6d | |
31.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 125d |