Research

Why markets are priced the way they are — evidence-backed, dated, and cited. Confirmed facts are separated from interpretation.

Featured researchPolitics· 9m ago

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Fair probability of 64.4% appears reasonable given Lula's current incumbency and political strength, but lacks grounding in current polling, economic indicators, or competitor ana…

64.4%
Fair Probability
Single sourceEvidence pending
manifold
Read analysis →
Tech & Science· 9m ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

The 53.6% midpoint probability appears roughly calibrated to general AI trajectory uncertainty, but lacks evidential grounding.

53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 9m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 24m ago
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?
17.5%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 24m ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 24m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 39m ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

The 53.6% reflects genuine technical uncertainty in a 5-year horizon, but the assessment lacks grounding.

53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 39m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 39m ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
11.5%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 54m ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 54m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 54m ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

11.5% reflects moderate tail-risk positioning without external sources.

11.5%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 1h ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 1h ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 1h ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
11.5%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 1h ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 1h ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

The 40.7% fair probability appears reasonable as a baseline for recession risk over any 4-year period, but the absence of sourced reasoning prevents validation of whether this ref…

40.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 1h ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
11.5%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 2h ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 2h ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 2h ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
11.5%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 2h ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

The 53.6% probability appears broadly calibrated for technical uncertainty, but assessment is severely limited by absence of: (1) Longbets test definition, (2) external sources, (…

53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 2h ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 2h ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
11.5%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →