Research

Why markets are priced the way they are — evidence-backed, dated, and cited. Confirmed facts are separated from interpretation.

Featured researchEconomics & Fed· 3h ago

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

The 27.9% probability reflects genuine uncertainty.

27.9%

Fair Probability

Single sourceEvidence pending

manifold

Read analysis →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

36.5% is plausible but unsubstantiated without sources.

36.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

47.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

36.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

47.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in September 2026 be between -0.2% and -0.1%?

64.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

36.5% is plausible but under-justified without sources.

36.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

47.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

53.9%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

47.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

53.9%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 3h ago

Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in September 2026 be between -0.2% and -0.1%?

The 64.5% fair probability is surprisingly high for such a tight range.

64.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

36.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

47.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

53.9%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

36.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in October?

Insufficient foundational data.

36.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

47.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

36.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

47.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in October?

36.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

36.5% is plausible but under-evidenced without source anchoring.

36.5%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026?

25.7%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →

Economics & Fed· 4h ago

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

53.9%Single source

Evidence pendingRead →