Research

Why markets are priced the way they are — evidence-backed, dated, and cited. Confirmed facts are separated from interpretation.

Featured researchTech & Science· 6m ago

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Current 37.1% reflects moderate skepticism on 15 GW achievement by EOY2026.

37.1%
Fair Probability
LowEvidence pending
manifold
Read analysis →
Economics & Fed· 6m ago
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

The 33.7% fair probability reflects genuine uncertainty: AI's macroeconomic impact is plausible but timing and attribution are uncertain.

33.7%Low
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 6m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
41.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 21m ago
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
37.1%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 21m ago
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
33.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 21m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
41.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 35m ago
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

37.1% reflects appropriate skepticism given tight timeline (~18 months) and historical nuclear deployment delays.

37.1%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 36m ago
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
33.7%Medium
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 36m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
41.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 50m ago
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
37.1%Low
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 51m ago
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
33.7%Low
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 51m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

The 41.0% fair probability is plausible given long-cycle recession frequency (~10-20% annualized risk, compounding to meaningful probability over 4 years), but the supplied inform…

41.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 1h ago
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
37.1%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 1h ago
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
33.7%Low
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 1h ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
41.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Crypto· 1h ago
Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]
38.8%Low
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 1h ago
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Fair probability of 37.1% appears reasonable as a middle estimate given rapid AI-nuclear momentum but severe timeline constraints (18 months) for 15 GW to be materially operationa…

37.1%Low
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 1h ago
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
33.7%Low
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 2h ago
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
37.1%Low
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 2h ago
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
33.7%Low
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 2h ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
41.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 2h ago
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

The 33.7% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether AI's economic effects will manifest as detectable trend breaks vs.

33.7%Low
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 2h ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
41.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 2h ago
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?
40.5%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →