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11,409
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?
▼ -23.0 pts
Widest disagreement
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Most covered
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
2 venues
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The most active markets
Fastest rising
Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability
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Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”
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11,409 markets · page 2 of 8Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
Tech & Science13.6%
flat—
manifold
ResearchWill AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Tech & Science6.4%
flat1193d
manifold
ResearchWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
Economics & Fed73.5%
flat33d
polymarket
ResearchWill Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?
Economics & Fed59.9%
flat106d
polymarket
ResearchWill annual inflation be 3.6% in September?
Economics & Fed46.5%
flat18d
polymarket
ResearchUK Recession in 2026?
Economics & Fed8.5%
flat216d
polymarket
ResearchWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?
Economics & Fed90.3%
flat114d
polymarket
ResearchWill US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Economics & Fed3.3%
flat127d
polymarket
ResearchWill the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Economics & Fed41.0%
flat1212d
manifold
ResearchBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Economics & Fed33.3%
▲ +0.7 pts462d
manifold
ResearchIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Tech & Science93.6%
▼ -0.4 pts462d
manifold
ResearchIn 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Tech & Science88.7%
flat462d
manifold
ResearchWill AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Tech & Science37.1%
flat96d
manifold
ResearchWill Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]
Crypto38.8%
flat96d
manifold
ResearchWill Polymarket IPO before 2028?
Economics & Fed43.0%
flat461d
manifold
ResearchLLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Tech & Science60.0%
flat461d
manifold
ResearchOpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Tech & Science31.3%
flat1373d
manifold
ResearchWill an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?
Tech & Science50.5%
flat—
manifold
ResearchWill a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
Tech & Science71.1%
flat461d
manifold
ResearchWill Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?
Politics64.6%
▼ -1.3 pts847d
manifold
ResearchInternational treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Tech & Science33.0%
flat1192d
manifold
ResearchWill the 2028 US Presidential election happen normally?
Politics66.8%
flat886d
manifold
ResearchWill a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
Politics38.4%
flat946d
manifold
ResearchUS recession in 2026?
Economics & Fed7.2%
flat96d
manifold
ResearchWill JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics48.0%
flat644d
manifold
Research| Market | Fair | 24h | Venues | Cross-spread | Top gap | Confidence | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 Tech & ScienceOpen → | 13.6% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen → | 6.4% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1193d |
73.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 33d | |
59.9% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 106d | |
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? Economics & FedOpen → | 46.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 18d |
UK Recession in 2026? Economics & FedOpen → | 8.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 216d |
90.3% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 114d | |
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Economics & FedOpen → | 3.3% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 127d |
41.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1212d | |
33.3% | ▲ +0.7 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 462d | |
93.6% | ▼ -0.4 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 462d | |
88.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 462d | |
37.1% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 96d | |
38.8% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 96d | |
Will Polymarket IPO before 2028? Economics & FedOpen → | 43.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 461d |
60.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 461d | |
31.3% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1373d | |
50.5% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — | |
71.1% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 461d | |
64.6% | ▼ -1.3 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 847d | |
33.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1192d | |
66.8% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 886d | |
38.4% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 946d | |
US recession in 2026? Economics & FedOpen → | 7.2% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 96d |
48.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 644d |
Continue exploring
Recently published research
Economics & Fed· 6m ago
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?
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Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 6m ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
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Tech & Science· 6m ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
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