Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
3,262
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
▼ -3.0 pts
Highest confidence
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Medium · 66
Widest disagreement
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Research
Most covered
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
74.5%
Fair Probability
43
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
32.7%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Tech & Science508d
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
69.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed143d
US recession in 2026?
10.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science143d
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
8.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science1605d
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
47.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
38.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Commodities1605d
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
50.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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World Events142d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
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Politicsclosed
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Eventsclosed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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World Events50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
14.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events142d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
46.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science21d
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
2.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events21d
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events8d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
0.4%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Highest confidence

Best-supported consensus right now

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Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
32.7%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
74.5%
Fair Probability
43
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Crypto1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports2h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports11h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs
76.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11?
99.9%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?
1.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics21h
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
74.5%
Fair Probability
43
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
32.7%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Politics819d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
18.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
65.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

All markets

2 filtered · page 1 of 1
AllPolitics18Economics & Fed15Sports675Commodities3Crypto217WeatherWorld Events62Tech & Science10
Featured
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury
Sports
68.3%
Medium
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
Weather
8.8%
Single
flat1239d
manifold
Research

Continue exploring

Recently published research
Economics & Fed· 14m ago
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
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Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 14m ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 14m ago
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
69.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →