Markets
What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.
Live markets
11,409
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?
▼ -23.0 pts
Widest disagreement
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Most covered
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
2 venues
Trending now
The most active markets
Fastest rising
Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability
Fastest falling
Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability
Closing soon
Resolving in the near term
Largest probability gaps
Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”
All markets
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Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
Weather11.8%
flat1192d
manifold
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 22?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 14?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 12?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchAt the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?
Weather—
flat705d
manifold
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 8?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 7?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on September 7?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 5?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 2?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 31?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 29?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 26?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 25?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 24?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 24?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 21?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 19?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 17?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 16?
Weather—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research| Market | Fair | 24h | Venues | Cross-spread | Top gap | Confidence | Closes |
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11.8% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1192d | |
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— | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 705d | |
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— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
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— | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed |
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