Markets

Market	Fair	24h	Venues	Cross-spread	Top gap	Confidence	Closes
FeaturedWill AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060? Tech & ScienceOpen →	11.5%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	12562d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? Tech & ScienceOpen →	29.0%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	509d
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity] Tech & ScienceOpen →	2.5%	▼ -0.3 pts	manifold	Research	Research	Single	21d
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen →	45.0%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1604d
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? Tech & ScienceOpen →	75.2%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	509d
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? Tech & ScienceOpen →	88.9%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	509d
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion? Tech & ScienceOpen →	89.0%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	509d
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	8.3%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	143d
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029? Tech & ScienceOpen →	53.6%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1239d
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 Tech & ScienceOpen →	12.5%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	27171d
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006? Tech & ScienceOpen →	9.7%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	174d
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035 Tech & ScienceOpen →	38.7%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	3066d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	Closed
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	—
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	Closed
Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028 Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	508d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	Closed
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	Closed
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	Closed
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	142d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	Closed
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1240d
Will SpaceX (SPCX) beat quarterly earnings? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	Closed
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	21d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	polymarket	Research	Research	Single	20d

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