World Events
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
World Events39.5%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchJensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?
World Events13.5%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchWill Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
World Events10.0%
▼ -1.2 pts59d
polymarket
ResearchUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
World Events34.5%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchWill Trump finish his second term?
World Events85.1%
▼ -0.1 pts804d
manifold
ResearchU.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?
World Events8.2%
flat417d
manifold
ResearchHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
World Events1.1%
▼ -1.4 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
World Events34.5%
▼ -10.0 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
World Events12.5%
▲ +3.0 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
World Events93.5%
▲ +4.0 pts6d
polymarket
ResearchUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
World Events38.3%
▲ +3.4 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchWill the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
World Events0.1%
▼ -6.9 ptsClosed
polymarket
ResearchStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
World Events9.5%
▲ +3.0 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
World Events4.2%
▼ -1.3 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
World Events4.3%
▲ +0.7 pts21d
polymarket
ResearchWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
World Events9.5%
▼ -3.0 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
World Events1.7%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchPuffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
World Events100.0%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchWill Gen.G win Worlds 2026?
World Events62.5%
▼ -2.0 pts19d
polymarket
ResearchWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
World Events1.7%
▼ -0.5 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
World Events16.5%
▲ +3.0 pts21d
polymarket
ResearchSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
World Events90.4%
flat1148d
manifold
ResearchUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
World Events14.5%
▼ -2.0 pts21d
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flat8h
polymarket
ResearchWill Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary?
World Events1.0%
▼ -0.8 pts417d
polymarket
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
World Events64.5%
▲ +10.0 pts51d
polymarket
ResearchQ-Day before 2030?
World Events17.6%
flat1148d
manifold
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
World Events78.5%
▲ +15.0 pts20d
polymarket
ResearchWill Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?
World Events13.5%
flat20h
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?
World Events59.0%
flat12d
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
World Events27.0%
flat21d
polymarket
ResearchIran leadership change by December 31?
World Events8.5%
▲ +1.0 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?
World Events45.5%
flat5d
polymarket
ResearchPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
World Events29.5%
flat21d
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flat8h
polymarket
ResearchJensen Huang divorce in 2026?
World Events9.5%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchPuffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?
World Events100.0%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchIran leadership change by November 30?
World Events2.3%
▼ -0.2 pts21d
polymarket
ResearchWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
World Events2.8%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchWill Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
World Events41.5%
▲ +8.0 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?
World Events57.5%
flat20d
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by December 31?
World Events80.5%
flat51d
polymarket
ResearchIsraeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?
World Events30.5%
▼ -1.0 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchPuffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?
World Events100.0%
▲ +6.5 pts52d
polymarket
ResearchWill Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?
World Events37.3%
▲ +12.3 pts19d
polymarket
ResearchWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
World Events94.3%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchGeneration Starship By 2150
World Events44.3%
flat1359d
manifold
ResearchWill T1 win Worlds 2026?
World Events0.1%
▼ -15.4 pts19d
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
World Events0.3%
▲ +0.2 pts8h
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?
World Events16.5%
▲ +3.0 ptsClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?
World Events0.1%
▼ -0.3 ptsClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?
World Events100.0%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
World Events99.8%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchInstant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
World Events78.0%
flat417d
manifold
ResearchWill the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026?
World Events10.6%
flat52d
manifold
ResearchWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
World Events28.6%
flat1148d
manifold
ResearchWill building datacenters in the US be much more difficult by mid-2029?
World Events32.3%
flat964d
manifold
ResearchNext White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
World Events39.5%
flat21d
polymarket
ResearchWill I get a job through a referral before April 2027?
World Events52.4%
flat142d
manifold
ResearchWill Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?
World Events9.9%
flat569d
manifold
ResearchUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?
World Events4.0%
flat6d
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flat8h
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?
World Events99.4%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchPuffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?
World Events95.0%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchWill Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?
World Events0.1%
flat19d
polymarket
ResearchWill Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
World Events29.7%
flat52d
manifold
ResearchUS x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?
World Events99.3%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchWill JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.2M in October?
World Events16.5%
flat21d
polymarket
ResearchWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?
World Events71.5%
flat20h
polymarket
ResearchIf the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into effect before 2029, will the Supreme Court block it?
World Events59.1%
flat783d
manifold
ResearchHow will I rate Garriga 1997? (+free lottery)
World Events50.2%
flatClosed
manifold
ResearchWill 0xDe89112492A292c194D2501b2721D4Bc6cED2A75 RECEIVE more than 300.00 USDC Base by November 10th 11:59 pm UTC
World Events4.9%
flat15h
manifold
ResearchUS x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flat6d
polymarket
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?
World Events52.0%
flat36d
polymarket
ResearchWill Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?
World Events0.1%
flat19d
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
World Events100.0%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?
World Events3.4%
flat21d
polymarket
ResearchIran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?
World Events19.5%
flat21d
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
World Events100.0%
flatClosed
polymarketmanifold
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
World Events14.5%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
World Events1.1%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchIran full airspace closure by December 31?
World Events28.0%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
World Events0.7%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
World Events38.0%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?
World Events99.9%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
World Events0.4%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?
World Events21.5%
flat142d
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
World Events5.1%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
World Events3.1%
flat21d
polymarket
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?
World Events99.7%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchNetanyahu out by June 30, 2027?
World Events50.0%
flat233d
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?
World Events97.5%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchXi Jinping out before 2027?
World Events1.8%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
World Events100.0%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
World Events72.7%
flat1149d
manifold
ResearchStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill this market cause anyone to attend Metagame 2026?
World Events40.3%
flat8d
manifold
ResearchWill JD Vance attempt to seize the presidency in November 2026?
World Events4.2%
flat21d
manifold
ResearchFlorida learjet crash was intentional.
World Events8.2%
flat755d
manifold
ResearchWill Dan Sullivan lose because of Dan Sullivan? [Short fuse]
World Events20.9%
flatClosed
manifold
ResearchWill the first commercially successful personal robot use legs?
World Events64.0%
flat—
manifold
ResearchWill ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?
World Events100.0%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill US births in 2026 be between 3.56 million and 3.59 million?
World Events31.5%
flat172d
polymarket
ResearchWill Republicans win EVERY Cook Political Report Lean R Seat?
World Events1.0%
flat21d
manifold
ResearchWill Democrats win EVERY Cook Political Report Lean D Seat?
World Events94.0%
flat52d
manifold
ResearchWill Republicans lose any Cook Political Report Likely R Seat?
World Events97.4%
flat21d
manifold
ResearchWill Democrats win EVERY Cook Political Report Likely D Seat?
World Events93.7%
flatClosed
manifold
ResearchEthan Klein's affair is a cover for something worse.
World Events5.3%
flat357d
manifold
ResearchDaily Coinflip
World Events50.5%
flatClosed
manifold
ResearchHow will I rate Hong 2003? (+free lottery)
World Events35.0%
flatClosed
manifold
Research2026 Balance of Power: Other
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchBlue wave in 2026?
World Events100.0%
flat56d
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchRepublicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
World Events0.6%
flat8d
manifold
ResearchWill Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?
World Events100.0%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWhat % of Starship Stages will be caught during flights 16-25 (10 flights)
World Events52.5%
flat783d
manifold
ResearchDEMS/IND win ANY of Florida, Mississippi, Montana or Louisiana?
World Events34.8%
flatClosed
manifold
ResearchRepublican Party mass extinction event?
World Events4.4%
flat52d
manifold
ResearchHow will I rate Wang 2019? (+free lottery)
World Events40.0%
flatClosed
manifold
ResearchWill the Bank of England make no change to the Bank Rate at the March meeting?
World Events59.0%
flat129d
polymarket
ResearchWill the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?
World Events65.5%
flat29d
polymarket
ResearchWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate at the March meeting?
World Events41.5%
flat130d
polymarket
ResearchWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31?
World Events91.0%
flat51d
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
World Events50.6%
flat—
manifold
ResearchIf I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?
World Events57.7%
flat907d
manifold
ResearchUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?
World Events1.5%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
World Events0.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?
World Events0.4%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchDid COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
World Events26.5%
flat—
manifold
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
World Events99.3%
flatClosed
polymarket
Research1win FDV above $70M one day after launch?
World Events0.1%
flat417d
polymarket
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?
World Events99.7%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?
World Events0.1%
flat52d
polymarket
ResearchU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?
World Events99.1%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
World Events100.0%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
World Events0.3%
flatClosed
polymarket
ResearchWill LOS win Worlds 2026?
World Events0.1%
flat19d
polymarket
ResearchWill Iran strike US military base at least once before December?
World Events61.4%
flat21d
manifold
ResearchWill Alexander Volankovski fight Justin Gaethje in 2027?
World Events18.2%
flat417d
manifold
Research| Market | Fair | 24h | Venues | Cross-spread | Top gap | Confidence | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
39.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
13.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
10.0% | ▼ -1.2 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 59d | |
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? World EventsOpen → | 34.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
Will Trump finish his second term? World EventsOpen → | 85.1% | ▼ -0.1 pts | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 804d |
8.2% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 417d | |
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? World EventsOpen → | 1.1% | ▼ -1.4 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
34.5% | ▼ -10.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
12.5% | ▲ +3.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
93.5% | ▲ +4.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 6d | |
38.3% | ▲ +3.4 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
0.1% | ▼ -6.9 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
9.5% | ▲ +3.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
4.2% | ▼ -1.3 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
4.3% | ▲ +0.7 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? World EventsOpen → | 9.5% | ▼ -3.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? World EventsOpen → | 1.7% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
100.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? World EventsOpen → | 62.5% | ▼ -2.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 19d |
1.7% | ▼ -0.5 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
16.5% | ▲ +3.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
90.4% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1148d | |
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? World EventsOpen → | 14.5% | ▼ -2.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 8h | |
1.0% | ▼ -0.8 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 417d | |
64.5% | ▲ +10.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 51d | |
Q-Day before 2030? World EventsOpen → | 17.6% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1148d |
78.5% | ▲ +15.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 20d | |
13.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 20h | |
59.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 12d | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
27.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
Iran leadership change by December 31? World EventsOpen → | 8.5% | ▲ +1.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
45.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 5d | |
29.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 8h | |
Jensen Huang divorce in 2026? World EventsOpen → | 9.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
100.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
Iran leadership change by November 30? World EventsOpen → | 2.3% | ▼ -0.2 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d |
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? World EventsOpen → | 2.8% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
41.5% | ▲ +8.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
57.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 20d | |
80.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 51d | |
30.5% | ▼ -1.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
100.0% | ▲ +6.5 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026? World EventsOpen → | 37.3% | ▲ +12.3 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 19d |
94.3% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
Generation Starship By 2150 World EventsOpen → | 44.3% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1359d |
Will T1 win Worlds 2026? World EventsOpen → | 0.1% | ▼ -15.4 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 19d |
0.3% | ▲ +0.2 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 8h | |
16.5% | ▲ +3.0 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.1% | ▼ -0.3 pts | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
100.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
99.8% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
78.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 417d | |
10.6% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
28.6% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1148d | |
32.3% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 964d | |
39.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
52.4% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 142d | |
9.9% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 569d | |
4.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 6d | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 8h | |
99.4% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
95.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026? World EventsOpen → | 0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 19d |
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War? World EventsOpen → | 29.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
99.3% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
16.5% | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
71.5% | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 20h | |
59.1% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 783d | |
50.2% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
4.9% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 15h | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 6d | |
52.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 36d | |
Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026? World EventsOpen → | 0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 19d |
100.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
3.4% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
19.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
100.0% | flat | polymarketmanifold | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
14.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
1.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? World EventsOpen → | 28.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? World EventsOpen → | 0.7% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? World EventsOpen → | 38.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
0.1% | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
99.9% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.4% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
21.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 142d | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
5.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
3.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
99.7% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027? World EventsOpen → | 50.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 233d |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
97.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
Xi Jinping out before 2027? World EventsOpen → | 1.8% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
100.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
72.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 1149d | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
40.3% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 8d | |
4.2% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
Florida learjet crash was intentional. World EventsOpen → | 8.2% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 755d |
20.9% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
64.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — | |
100.0% | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
31.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 172d | |
1.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
94.0% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
97.4% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
93.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
5.3% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 357d | |
Daily Coinflip World EventsOpen → | 50.5% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | Closed |
How will I rate Hong 2003? (+free lottery) World EventsOpen → | 35.0% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | Closed |
2026 Balance of Power: Other World EventsOpen → | 0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed |
Blue wave in 2026? World EventsOpen → | 100.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 56d |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.6% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 8d | |
100.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
52.5% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 783d | |
34.8% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
Republican Party mass extinction event? World EventsOpen → | 4.4% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 52d |
How will I rate Wang 2019? (+free lottery) World EventsOpen → | 40.0% | flat— | manifold | Research | Research | Single | Closed |
59.0% | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 129d | |
65.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 29d | |
41.5% | flat— | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 130d | |
91.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 51d | |
50.6% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — | |
57.7% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 907d | |
1.5% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.4% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? World EventsOpen → | 26.5% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | — |
99.3% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? World EventsOpen → | 0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 417d |
99.7% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 52d | |
99.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
100.0% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
0.3% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | Closed | |
Will LOS win Worlds 2026? World EventsOpen → | 0.1% | flat | polymarket | Research | Research | Single | 19d |
61.4% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 21d | |
18.2% | flat | manifold | Research | Research | Single | 417d |