World Events

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?

Will LA Galaxy win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Generation Starship By 2150

Q-Day before 2030?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will Trump finish his second term?

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?

Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August?

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Will I find a wife by the end of 2027?

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?

Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 200.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC

Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC

How will I rate Vilenkin 1994? (+free lottery)

Daily Coinflip

Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

US airstrikes Yemen in September?

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?

Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?

Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?

Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Rogue AIs before 2028?

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on September 21 2026?

Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?

Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September?

Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office every single day from Sept 14–30?

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?

Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UTC

How will I rate del Vilenkin 1993? (+free lottery)

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.6M in August?

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Iran leadership change by September 30?

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?

How will I rate del Campo & Vilenkin 1989? (+free lottery)

Daily Coinflip

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 18?

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?

Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?

Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?

Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?

Daily Coinflip

How will I rate Vilenkin 1988b? (+free lottery)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?

Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?