Manifold

Market	Fair	24h	Venues	Cross-spread	Top gap	Confidence	Closes
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	464d
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	464d
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	98d
Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity] CryptoOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	98d
Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	98d
Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026? Economics & FedOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	21d
Will Polymarket IPO before 2028? Economics & FedOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027 Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030 Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1375d
Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1194d
Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	646d
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	98d
Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	101d
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1560d
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO? Economics & FedOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1559d
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	40d
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1194d
World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy) Economics & FedOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1195d
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030? WeatherOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1194d
Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	980d
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	41d
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	129d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	464d
Generation Starship By 2150 World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1406d
Q-Day before 2030? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1194d
🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027 PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	8d
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1194d
Will Trump finish his second term? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	850d
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free? CommoditiesOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	98d
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027? CommoditiesOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	157d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	polymarketmanifold	Research	Research	Single	6d
US recession by end of 2026? Economics & FedOpen →	—	flat—	polymarketmanifold	Research	Research	Single	128d
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifoldpolymarket	Research	Research	Single	—
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifoldpolymarket	Research	Research	Single	774d
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term? Economics & FedOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1214d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI? Economics & FedOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	464d
Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	98d
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1194d
Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	188d
Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	948d
Will the 2028 US Presidential election happen normally? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	888d
Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	849d
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	98d
Will Missouris redistricting referendum pass? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	40d
Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1194d
Will Democrats win the Senate in the 2028 Senate elections? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	776d
Will Australia loosen copyright laws to allow AI model training by EOY 2027? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
In early 2029, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	829d
Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $102 on September 24, 2026? CommoditiesOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	Closed
PMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition) Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	99d
Will USA break its continuous human presence in outer space before 2040? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026? CryptoOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	6d
Bitcoin price reaches 100k USD by the end of October CryptoOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	37d
Will Democrats win 53 seats or more in the 2026 Senate elections? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	41d
Will AI revenues be greater than $500 billion by end of 2027? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
If Saxony-Anhalt holds a snap election before 2028, will the AfD win an absolute majority? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be in ARTIFICIAL, the movie about OpenAI and the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	209d
Will OpenAI discover a room temp superconductor in 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	98d
Will any of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved with zero to minimal AI use? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description] Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	279d
Will Democrats US House Popular vote % be 12x or more the US Gas Price average on election day? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	40d
Will the first female US president also be a mother? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will I get a job at Tesla? Tech & ScienceOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	342d
S&P 500 closes at 9000 before 2028? Economics & FedOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
Will the MAGA ‘Moderates’ all lose reelection? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	41d
Will The Odyssey receive the most Oscar nominations? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	144d
Will anyone be impeached by the US House of Representatives in 2027? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	98d
If Democrats win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block Democratic winners from being seated? PoliticsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	101d
Will I find a wife by the end of 2027? World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	463d
Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 200.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	4d
Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	4d
How will I rate Vilenkin 1994? (+free lottery) World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	3d
Daily Coinflip World EventsOpen →	—	flat—	manifold	Research	Research	Single	23h