Manifold

Market	Fair	24h	Venues	Cross-spread	Top gap	Confidence	Closes
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? PoliticsOpen →	0.1%	flat	manifoldpolymarket	Research	Research	Single	730d
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term? Economics & FedOpen →	36.5%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1169d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI? Economics & FedOpen →	27.9%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	419d
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? Tech & ScienceOpen →	93.8%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	419d
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion? Tech & ScienceOpen →	88.8%	▼ -0.2 pts	manifold	Research	Research	Single	419d
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	38.1%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	53d
Will Polymarket IPO before 2028? Economics & FedOpen →	38.3%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	418d
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030 Tech & ScienceOpen →	31.3%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1330d
Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050? Tech & ScienceOpen →	50.5%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027? Tech & ScienceOpen →	70.5%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	418d
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen →	33.0%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1149d
US recession in 2026? Economics & FedOpen →	4.2%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	53d
Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term? PoliticsOpen →	69.3%	▼ -0.8 pts	manifold	Research	Research	Single	804d
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026? Tech & ScienceOpen →	3.2%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	53d
Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election? PoliticsOpen →	36.8%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	601d
Will Bitcoin Outperform Altcoins in 2026? CryptoOpen →	66.1%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	54d
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen →	47.8%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1515d
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050? Tech & ScienceOpen →	38.1%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO? Economics & FedOpen →	62.1%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1514d
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029? Tech & ScienceOpen →	60.7%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1149d
World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy) Economics & FedOpen →	64.1%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away? Tech & ScienceOpen →	38.9%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030? PoliticsOpen →	27.4%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1150d
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030? WeatherOpen →	10.0%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1149d
Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes? PoliticsOpen →	85.6%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	935d
Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election? PoliticsOpen →	5.1%	▲ +0.4 pts	manifold	Research	Research	Single	63d
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006? Tech & ScienceOpen →	5.3%	▲ +0.1 pts	manifold	Research	Research	Single	84d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? Tech & ScienceOpen →	44.0%	▲ +1.7 pts	manifold	Research	Research	Single	419d
Will the 2028 US Presidential election happen normally? PoliticsOpen →	67.0%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	843d
Q-Day before 2030? World EventsOpen →	17.6%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1149d
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? World EventsOpen →	90.4%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1149d
Will Trump finish his second term? World EventsOpen →	85.2%	▼ -0.5 pts	manifold	Research	Research	Single	805d
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free? CommoditiesOpen →	22.2%	▼ -0.3 pts	manifold	Research	Research	Single	53d
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API? PoliticsOpen →	67.5%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027? World EventsOpen →	8.2%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	418d
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027? CommoditiesOpen →	92.3%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	112d
Generation Starship By 2150 World EventsOpen →	44.3%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1360d
Will the 2028 Democratic convention need more than one ballot to nominate a president? PoliticsOpen →	6.0%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	691d
Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail? PoliticsOpen →	38.6%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	903d
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? PoliticsOpen →	1.6%	▼ -0.2 pts	manifoldpolymarket	Research	Research	Single	Closed
Will the 2028 Republican convention need more than one ballot to nominate a president? PoliticsOpen →	3.0%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	691d
Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes? PoliticsOpen →	52.9%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	935d
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027? World EventsOpen →	78.0%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	418d
Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026? World EventsOpen →	10.6%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	53d
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030? World EventsOpen →	28.6%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1149d
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? Tech & ScienceOpen →	7.0%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	1150d
Will building datacenters in the US be much more difficult by mid-2029? World EventsOpen →	32.3%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	965d
Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes? PoliticsOpen →	42.6%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	570d
Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027? World EventsOpen →	52.4%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	143d
Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh? World EventsOpen →	9.9%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	570d
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 Tech & ScienceOpen →	13.8%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? Tech & ScienceOpen →	54.8%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040? Tech & ScienceOpen →	7.9%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060? Tech & ScienceOpen →	11.3%	flat	manifold	Research	Research	Single	—
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War? World EventsOpen →	29.7%	▲ +0.2 pts	manifold	Research	Research	Single	53d