Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
3,253
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
▼ -3.0 pts
Highest confidence
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Medium · 69
Widest disagreement
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Research
Most covered
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
60.2%
Fair Probability
65
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports0h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.4%
Fair Probability
66
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
59.4%
Fair Probability
69
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Crypto—
Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?
51.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed1259d
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science1605d
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
47.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
38.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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World Events142d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics23h
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
58.5%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Politicsclosed
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics7d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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World Events50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
14.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events142d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
46.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science21d
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
2.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events21d
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science509d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1.6%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events8d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Highest confidence

Best-supported consensus right now

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Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
59.4%
Fair Probability
69
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports0h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.4%
Fair Probability
66
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
60.2%
Fair Probability
65
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Sports0h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.4%
Fair Probability
66
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports0h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
55.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports2h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto3h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto3h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports4h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
60.2%
Fair Probability
65
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
59.4%
Fair Probability
69
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Politics819d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream
1.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
55.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
28.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
19.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

All markets

200 filtered · page 5 of 8
AllPolitics16Economics & Fed14Sports713Crypto190World Events57Tech & Science10
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
Crypto
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Single
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Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?
Crypto
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flat21d
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Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
Crypto
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Single
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polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 4?
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Crypto
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Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
Crypto
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Single
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Ethereum Up or Down on August 4?
Crypto
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Single
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Research
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 4?
Crypto
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Single
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Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 4?
Crypto
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Single
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polymarket
Research
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 4?
Crypto
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Single
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Research
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto
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Single
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flat143d
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on August 4?
Crypto
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Continue exploring

Recently published research
Tech & Science· 11m ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 11m ago
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
68.2%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 12m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%Single source
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Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →