Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
3,250
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
▲ +7.0 pts
Highest confidence
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Medium · 69
Widest disagreement
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Research
Most covered
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
72.8%
Fair Probability
56
Research
skipoddspolymarket
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Sports1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.4%
Fair Probability
66
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
59.4%
Fair Probability
69
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Crypto—
Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?
51.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed1259d
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science1605d
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
47.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
38.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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Tech & Science—
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
45.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events142d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politicsclosed
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
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Politics7d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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World Events50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
14.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
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World Events142d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
46.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science21d
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
2.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events21d
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science509d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1.6%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Highest confidence

Best-supported consensus right now

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Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
59.4%
Fair Probability
69
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.4%
Fair Probability
66
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
72.8%
Fair Probability
56
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Sports0h
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports0h
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.4%
Fair Probability
66
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
55.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports2h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto3h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
72.8%
Fair Probability
56
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
59.4%
Fair Probability
69
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Politics819d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream
10.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
55.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
43.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
28.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

All markets

154 filtered · page 4 of 7
AllPolitics16Economics & Fed14Sports713Crypto190World Events57Tech & Science10
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
World Events
—
Single
—
flat51d
polymarket
Research
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
World Events
—
Single
—
flat142d
polymarket
Research
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Iran leadership change by July 31?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
World Events
—
Single
—
flat507d
polymarket
Research
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
World Events
—
Single
—
flat81d
polymarket
Research
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
World Events
—
Single
—
flat142d
polymarket
Research
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
World Events
—
Single
—
flat81d
polymarket
Research
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
World Events
—
Single
—
flat51d
polymarket
Research
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research

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Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →