Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
3,259
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
▼ -3.0 pts
Highest confidence
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
Medium · 71
Widest disagreement
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Research
Most covered
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
73.1%
Fair Probability
55
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
48.3%
Fair Probability
68
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
58.4%
Fair Probability
71
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics21d
Trump out as President by August 31?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-08-10?
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
14.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports324d
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?
3.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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World Events142d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politicsclosed
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Eventsclosed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1.9%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics7d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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World Events50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
14.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events142d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
46.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science21d
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
2.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events21d
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events8d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
0.4%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1.6%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Highest confidence

Best-supported consensus right now

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Sportsclosed
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
58.4%
Fair Probability
71
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
48.3%
Fair Probability
68
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
73.1%
Fair Probability
55
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Sports1h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto2h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports3h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?
1.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto14h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11?
99.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics22h
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
73.1%
Fair Probability
55
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
48.3%
Fair Probability
68
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Politics819d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
28.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
48.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
0.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream
0.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

All markets

200 filtered · page 6 of 8
AllPolitics16Economics & Fed16Sports710Commodities3Crypto189Weather1World Events56Tech & Science9
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 3?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
National Bank Open: Solana Sierra vs Sloane Stephens
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Ethereum Up or Down on August 3?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 3?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 4?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flat143d
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 4?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on August 2?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2?
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 27-August 2?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 27-August 2?
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on August 1?
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 1?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research

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Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →