Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
11,257
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?
▲ +24.9 pts
Highest confidence
US recession by end of 2026?
High · 75
Widest disagreement
US recession by end of 2026?
Research
Most covered
US recession by end of 2026?
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Economics & Fed127d
US recession by end of 2026?
8.9%
Fair Probability
75
Research
polymarketmanifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
13.6%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed41d
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
16.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science1194d
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
6.4%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed115d
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
17.4%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed19d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?
35.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed1213d
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
41.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed34d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?
32.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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Commodities97d
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?
40.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed41d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
19.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events5d
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
90.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events97d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
27.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events97d
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
64.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics39d
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
60.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science463d
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
94.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Politics8d
🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027
43.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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Tech & Science463d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
36.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed127d
US recession by end of 2026?
8.9%
Fair Probability
75
Research
polymarketmanifold
View market →
Economics & Fed19d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?
35.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed463d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
33.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed1558d
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?
63.4%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events5d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Highest confidence

Best-supported consensus right now

View all →
Economics & Fed127d
US recession by end of 2026?
8.9%
Fair Probability
75
Research
polymarketmanifold
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Sports0h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports2h
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports2h
Counter-Strike: M80 vs BESTIA (BO3) - iBUYPOWER Masters fl0m's Mythical LAN Group B
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports2h
Clemson vs. California
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 26?
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto16h
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 26?
63.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports18h
Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports41h
Spread: Panthers (-2.5)
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

View all →
Economics & Fed127d
US recession by end of 2026?
8.9%
Fair Probability
75
Research
polymarketmanifold
View market →
World Events5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
0.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarketmanifold
View market →
Economics & Fed33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
36.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarketmanifold
View market →
Politics773d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →

All markets

200 filtered · page 2 of 8
AllPolitics7Economics & Fed12Sports725Commodities1Crypto203Weather1World Events46Tech & Science5
Army vs. Temple
Sports
63.5%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: FALKE Esports vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs
Sports
0.1%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)
Sports
49.5%
Single
—
flat41h
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Sangal (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs
Sports
0.1%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?
Sports
42.5%
Single
—
flat18h
polymarket
Research
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Sports
1.8%
Single
▼ -1.2 pts187d
polymarket
Research
Tolentino: Nuria Brancaccio vs Julia Grabher
Sports
39.5%
Single
—
flat7d
polymarket
Research
LoL: FALKE Esports vs Kawaii Kiwis - Game 4 Winner
Sports
0.1%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Spread: Ravens (-3.5)
Sports
47.5%
Single
—
flat44h
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner
Sports
100.0%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Belgium win on 2026-09-25?
Sports
29.5%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Yellow Submarine - Game 4 Winner
Sports
100.0%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
St. Tropez: Titouan Droguet vs Mark Lajal
Sports
81.5%
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Will Armenia win on 2026-09-25?
Sports
100.0%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Porto: Mia Pohankova vs Katie Swan
Sports
100.0%
Single
—
flat7d
polymarket
Research
St. Tropez: Dino Prizmic vs Daniil Glinka
Sports
100.0%
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Tolentino: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Oksana Selekhmeteva
Sports
25.5%
Single
—
flat7d
polymarket
Research
Buenos Aires 2: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Eduardo Ribeiro
Sports
100.0%
Single
—
flat7d
polymarket
Research
Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox
Sports
54.5%
Single
—
flat7d
polymarket
Research
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Sports
47.5%
Single
—
flat7d
polymarket
Research
Laver Cup: Jakub Mensik vs Brandon Nakashima
Sports
0.1%
Single
—
flat7d
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Sports
0.1%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Panama win on 2026-09-25?
Sports
0.1%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Sports
100.0%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner
Sports
100.0%
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research

Continue exploring

Recently published research
Economics & Fed· 14m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
41.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 14m ago
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?
35.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 14m ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
6.4%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →