Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
18,320
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in October?
▼ -16.5 pts
Widest disagreement
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Research
Most covered
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Politics729d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →
Crypto—
Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?
50.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
11.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
54.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
7.9%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
14.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science1149d
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
7.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Sports—
Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?
75.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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World Events21d
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
78.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics52d
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
81.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed72d
Will South African inflation be between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026?
17.6%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed72d
Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026?
31.6%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed52d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
97.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events13d
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?
59.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events52d
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
64.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed38d
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?
13.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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Economics & Fed8d
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in October?
36.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in November?
68.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events52d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
33.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events21d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
18.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Eventsclosed
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed72d
Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?
45.6%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politicsclosed
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?
89.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed30d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
18.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Sports3h
LoL: FENNEL vs Nothin'Here (BO5) - LCP Promotion Playoffs
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports3h
LoL: FENNEL vs Nothin'Here - Game 1 Winner
2.1%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events9h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed21h
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?
5.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed21h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed21h
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in October?
0.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed21h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?
2.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events21h
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?
3.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

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Politics729d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →
Politicsclosed
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
1.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
India Tour of New Zealand ODIs: New Zealand vs India
47.5%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarketskipodds
View market →

All markets

200 filtered · page 2 of 8
AllPolitics460Economics & Fed553Sports14320Commodities82Crypto1677Weather58World Events1004Tech & Science165
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-08-30?
Sports
21.5%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
Sports
62.6%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Sports
15.8%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty
Sports
50.3%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)
Sports
55.1%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Dallas Wings
Sports
29.4%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Sports
50.7%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
Golden State Valkyries vs. Chicago Sky
Sports
45.7%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx
Sports
30.8%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty
Sports
50.4%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-2.5)
Sports
50.6%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Sports
58.1%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-10-30?
Sports
48.4%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
Sports
61.9%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Will South Africa win?
Sports
7.1%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Sports
64.7%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-09?
Sports
52.7%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
Sports
51.7%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sports
56.9%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Sports
52.9%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-10-18?
Sports
49.9%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Sports
60.0%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Sports
54.0%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Sports
60.1%
Medium
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sports
50.1%
Medium
—
flatClosed
polymarketskipodds
Research

Continue exploring

Recently published research
Tech & Science· 12m ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
11.3%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 27m ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
7.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 27m ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
7.9%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →