Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
3,305
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
▲ +7.0 pts
Highest confidence
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Medium · 66
Widest disagreement
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Research
Most covered
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
74.5%
Fair Probability
43
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
32.7%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?
27.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
45.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Commodities1605d
Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?
53.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science1604d
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
45.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Crypto—
Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?
51.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science509d
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
75.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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Tech & Science—
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
45.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Politics20h
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
60.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events142d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politicsclosed
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Eventsclosed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1.9%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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World Events142d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
46.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
14.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science21d
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
2.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events21d
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events8d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
0.4%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science509d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Highest confidence

Best-supported consensus right now

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Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
32.7%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
74.5%
Fair Probability
43
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Crypto0h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 10?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto0h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto0h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports1h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports10h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs
76.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11?
99.9%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?
1.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events12h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
74.5%
Fair Probability
43
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
32.7%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Politics819d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
18.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
65.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

All markets

200 filtered · page 8 of 8
AllPolitics25Economics & Fed15Sports676Commodities2Crypto210Weather1World Events61Tech & Science10
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Level UP vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-08-09?
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 2 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Joel Schwaerzler vs Andrea Guerrieri
Sports
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Single
—
flat5d
polymarket
Research
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: JD Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Sports
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Single
—
flat324d
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SAW (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs OG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Sports
—
Single
—
flat324d
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 3 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs BIG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will FC Inter Turku win on 2026-08-09?
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research

Continue exploring

Recently published research
Crypto· 12m ago
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11?
99.9%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 12m ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 12m ago
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
69.0%Single source
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Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →