Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
3,246
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
▲ +7.0 pts
Highest confidence
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
Medium · 66
Widest disagreement
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Research
Most covered
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
63.4%
Fair Probability
62
Research
skipoddspolymarket
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Sports1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.5%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Crypto—
Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?
51.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed1259d
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science1605d
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
47.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
38.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?
50.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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Tech & Science—
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
45.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Politics24h
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
58.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
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World Events142d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politicsclosed
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
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Politics7d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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World Events50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
14.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events142d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
46.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science21d
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
2.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events21d
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science509d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1.6%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Highest confidence

Best-supported consensus right now

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Sports1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.5%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
63.4%
Fair Probability
62
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Sports1h
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports1h
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.5%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
48.5%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports3h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto4h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?
0.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
63.4%
Fair Probability
62
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.5%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Politics819d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream
11.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
36.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
28.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

All markets

3,246 markets · page 5 of 8
AllPolitics16Economics & Fed14Sports713Crypto190World Events57Tech & Science10
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Todi: Marco Cecchinato vs Nick Hardt
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
World Events
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs RE.Arise (BO3) - Asgard Championship Playoffs
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
World Events
—
Single
—
flat142d
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flat21d
polymarket
Research
Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-08-10?
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flat16h
polymarket
Research
Hamburg: Cezar Cretu vs Marvin Moeller
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Hamburg: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Vitaliy Sachko
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 10?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 10?
Crypto
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Hamburg: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Max Alcala Gurri
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Filip Jianu
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Sports
—
Single
—
flat117d
polymarket
Research
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Astana: Khumoun Sultanov vs Alexandr Binda
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MOUZ (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research

Continue exploring

Recently published research
Tech & Science· 15m ago
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
33.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 15m ago
Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?
50.5%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 15m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →