Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
3,252
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
▼ -3.0 pts
Highest confidence
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Medium · 69
Widest disagreement
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Research
Most covered
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
61.9%
Fair Probability
64
Research
skipoddspolymarket
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Sports0h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.4%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
59.4%
Fair Probability
69
Research
polymarket
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Sports7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
28.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
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Sports7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
26.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
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Crypto—
Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?
51.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed1259d
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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World Events142d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics23h
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
58.5%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics7d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politicsclosed
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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World Events50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
14.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events142d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
46.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science21d
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
2.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events21d
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science509d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1.6%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Highest confidence

Best-supported consensus right now

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Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
59.4%
Fair Probability
69
Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports0h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.4%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
61.9%
Fair Probability
64
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Sports0h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.4%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports0h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
55.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
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Sports1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports2h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto3h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto3h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports4h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
61.9%
Fair Probability
64
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports0h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
52.4%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
28.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
26.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Politics819d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream
3.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports1h
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
55.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

All markets

3,252 markets · page 6 of 8
AllPolitics16Economics & Fed14Sports713Crypto190World Events57Tech & Science10
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Astana: Khumoun Sultanov vs Alexandr Binda
Sports
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Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MOUZ (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner
Sports
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs Vitality Academy - Map 1 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Astana: Lucio Ratti vs Tai Sach
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
World Events
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Single
—
flat5d
polymarket
Research
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
Sports
—
Single
—
flat5d
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Mindfreak (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Playoffs
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
World Events
—
Single
—
flat7d
polymarket
Research
Valorant: All Gamers vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D
Sports
—
Single
—
flat47h
polymarket
Research
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
World Events
—
Single
—
flat81d
polymarket
Research
Astana: Koki Matsuda vs Hayato Matsuoka
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bournemouth win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
Sports
—
Single
—
flat293d
polymarket
Research
Astana: Semen Pankin vs Dominik Palan
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research

Continue exploring

Recently published research
Tech & Science· 1m ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 1m ago
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
68.2%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Economics & Fed· 1m ago
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
40.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →