Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
3,317
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
▲ +7.0 pts
Highest confidence
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Medium · 66
Widest disagreement
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Research
Most covered
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
32.7%
Fair Probability
66
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed142d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
2.7%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science143d
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
36.8%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science1420d
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
31.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science508d
LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
59.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed508d
Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?
52.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science—
Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?
50.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Tech & Science1239d
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
33.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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Tech & Science—
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
45.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Politics20h
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
61.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events142d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politicsclosed
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Eventsclosed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1.9%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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World Events142d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
46.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
14.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science21d
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
2.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events8d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
0.4%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science509d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Politics53d
🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027
64.4%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Highest confidence

Best-supported consensus right now

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Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
32.7%
Fair Probability
66
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Sports1h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports10h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs
76.5%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11?
99.9%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events12h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?
1.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics20h
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
61.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed24h
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?
9.2%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

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Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
32.7%
Fair Probability
66
—Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Politics819d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →

All markets

200 filtered · page 8 of 8
AllPolitics24Economics & Fed17Sports674Commodities2Crypto210Weather1World Events61Tech & Science11
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 31?
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 31?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 31?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 31?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 31?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 30?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 30?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 31?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 30?
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 30?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Crypto
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Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 30?
Crypto
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Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Crypto
—
Single
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flatClosed
polymarket
Research

Continue exploring

Recently published research
Tech & Science· 13m ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
8.2%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 13m ago
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
56.7%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Commodities· 13m ago
Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?
53.0%Single source
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Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →