Markets

What’s happening across every tracked prediction market right now.

Live markets
3,261
tracked across venues
Biggest mover
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
▼ -3.0 pts
Highest confidence
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
Medium · 71
Widest disagreement
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Research
Most covered
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
2 venues

Trending now

The most active markets

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
74.5%
Fair Probability
43
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
46.5%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
58.4%
Fair Probability
71
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
30.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
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Sports7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
27.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
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Sports7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Tech & Science508d
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
69.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
Economics & Fed143d
US recession in 2026?
10.2%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Fastest rising

Largest 24h gains in Fair Probability

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World Events142d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politicsclosed
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Politics7d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.7%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →

Fastest falling

Largest 24h declines in Fair Probability

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World Events50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
14.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events142d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
46.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science21d
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
2.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events21d
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
World Events20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Economics & Fed509d
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34.7%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →
World Events8d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
0.4%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Tech & Science509d
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29.0%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifold
View market →

Highest confidence

Best-supported consensus right now

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Sportsclosed
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
58.4%
Fair Probability
71
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
46.5%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
74.5%
Fair Probability
43
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →

Closing soon

Resolving in the near term

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Sports0h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports2h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
100.0%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Sports11h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs
76.5%
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11?
99.9%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
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Crypto13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?
1.3%
Fair Probability
·
Research
polymarket
View market →
Crypto13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?
—
Fair Probability
·
—Research
polymarket
View market →

Largest probability gaps

Where venues most disagree — a Gap, never an “edge.”

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Sports7d
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
74.5%
Fair Probability
43
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
46.5%
Fair Probability
66
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
30.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
27.5%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sports7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Sportsclosed
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
skipoddspolymarket
View market →
Politics819d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%
Fair Probability
·
Research
manifoldpolymarket
View market →

All markets

200 filtered · page 7 of 8
AllPolitics16Economics & Fed15Sports713Commodities3Crypto190Weather1World Events55Tech & Science7
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
skipoddspolymarket
Research
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs K27 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
National Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Level UP - Game 1 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov
Sports
—
Single
—
flat6d
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Level UP vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-08-09?
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-09?
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: JD Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-08-09?
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-09?
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym
Sports
—
Single
—
flat5d
polymarket
Research
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-08-09?
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Dota 2: Level UP vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports
—
Single
—
flatClosed
polymarket
Research

Continue exploring

Recently published research
Tech & Science· 1m ago
Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?
36.1%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 1m ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53.6%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Tech & Science· 1m ago
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
69.0%Single source
Evidence pendingRead →
Cross-market discrepancies →Movers →Research →Methodology →